About Experts... They Are Not Always Right

Just read an interesting NYT article about a blogger who accurately predicted the European debt mess.

Besides feeling a bit of shame at never having read the man (he's a countryman of mine, Edward Hugh, and who sounds just fascinating), my initial reaction was... of course! It's always the obscure but attentive amateur analysts that make the good calls, but their message is usually buried under an avalanche of mainstream media-approved 'experts'. The NYT lumps him in with previous economic Cassandras (like Nouriel Roubini, of the subprime collapse fame) that have since been lionized, or at least vindicated, by the events they portended - as tragic as they are. He's also mentioned alongside one of my all-time favorite op-ed columnists, Nobel winner Paul Krugman.

There's a larger message here, something about how the blogosphere has democratized the concept of expertise, and how the guy or gal that has everything figured out is always hiding in plain sight.

Or maybe the message is that while equivocation and pollyannaism may sell newspapers, it's only those that are laboring to make unpopular pronouncements that are actually making good predictions. Or maybe it's just that with so many opinions out there to be read and viewed, one of them is bound to hit the nail on the head??

Either way, Mr. Hugh's blogs have made their way into my RSS feed. I hope you start to follow as well.

You can read the article on NYT here - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/business/global/09blogger.html?pagewanted=2&ref=business&src=me