Someone’s Got a Case of the Mondays: How to Motivate Employees With Games (Seriously!)

Playing games and the enjoyment of game play is part of the human experience. Throughout civilizations, humans have played games – for entertainment and storytelling. But games have never been just about fun, they have also been used throughout history for education, training, and other practical purposes. And this is still the case today.

When the British archaeologist Howard Carter discovered Tutankhamun’s tomb in Egypt in 1922, he found among the many buried treasures several boards used to play the game of Senet. Apparently board games were very popular in ancient Egypt: scientists have found Senet boards that date back over 5,000 years.

Fast-forward 2,000 years (give or take a few), and we find ourselves in the fastest-paced society ever. Consumers are permanently connected to the Internet (and each other) through mobile devices and record numbers of marketing messages and distractions. So it’s no surprise that one of the most talked about engagement tactics of the past year has been gamification. This means using game dynamics like competition, collection of rewards such as points, badges or levels, and status on leaderboards to give consumers – and customers – a fun experience that taps into their love of games and keeps them engaged with the brand.

But while much has been written about how to harness the power of gamification to improve the customer experience, there hasn’t been much discussion about how gamification can help companies improve their employees’ experiences.

It’s true that work and play don’t go together very well in most employers’ minds. However, The Daedalus Project, which studied human behavior within the context of massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs), found that players are, in fact, honing work-related skills such as organizing teams, monitoring processes, assigning tasks and tracking budgets.

Who knew?

The Adweek article referenced above also cites a recent global survey by Gallup, which found that a whopping 90% of workers aren’t engaged with their jobs – and that disengagement is costing companies about $2 trillion in lost productivity.

Using Gamification Incentives as a Human Resources Strategy 

In an article for Forbes with predictions for 2014 in talent, leadership, and HR, Josh Bersin writes: “Today’s HR organization is no longer judged by its administrative efficiency – it is judged by its ability to acquire, develop, retain, and help manage talent. And more and more HR is being asked to become ‘Data-Driven’ – understand how to best manage people based on real data, not just judgment or good ideas.” Gamification is an excellent way for companies to tap into their employees’ personalities and interests while also gathering useful data.

Several experts agree that companies need to approach their corporate cultures from a gamified perspective in order to better engage their employees – much the same way they’re using gamification tactics to engage their customers.

I’m trying to imagine what it would be like to implement this kind of initiative at ThinkInk. Maybe create a leaderboard which shows who the fastest employee is? Or perhaps a special perk – say, a monetary bonus or a free lunch – for the employee who gets a thought leadership article or blog post or press release client-ready with the fewest rounds of edits.  Aaaaaahhhhh, the possibilities are endless.

The daily grind can sometimes leave employees feeling disengaged and listless, here at ThinkInk and at every other company. Perhaps if, as bosses and leaders of great teams, we can combine a play ethic with a work ethic, that daily grind can become less grinding and more fun.

It’s food for thought, at the very least.

Has your company implemented gamified initiatives to boost employee engagement? Have they been successful? Share your stories with us in the section below.

Is Customer Loyalty Earned, Bought or Both?

"Why was God able to create heaven and earth in seven days and seven nights? Because he didn't have installed customers and legacy technology to worry about." – Brad Smith, CEO, Intuit.

That’s what Smith told Fast Company earlier in the year when he was pondering this question: How do you actually move an existing group of customers from what they fell in love with to the next thing that could be great?

What he’s specifically talking about is near-field communications (NFC), a technology that uses a low-power radio signal to transmit information between two devices – such as a point-of-sale system and a consumer’s smartphone – and enables consumers to take actions such as making payments simply by tapping their phones against a terminal. I’ve written about NFC quite a lot, as well.

Mobile marketing pundits have been trumpeting NFC as the next big thing for several years, but as recently as September 2013 only 18% of American smartphone users owned an NFC-enabled device. And that’s primarily because tapping a phone isn’t all that different from swiping a card or handing over cash. 

In other words, consumers have been so well conditioned to using cards (prepaid, debit or credit) that it’s difficult to get them to embrace a new technology that requires them to change their habits – and there’s a similar dynamic in loyalty.

Loyalty program engagement has dropped 4.3% since 2010, but program memberships have continued to climb – there are 2.65 billion of them in the US alone! Clearly, consumers are used to joining loyalty programs, but when they find them unengaging, they stop using them, remaining members in name only. 

Not exactly a recipe for lasting brand loyalty, is it? Brands need to earn their customers’ goodwill and repeat business. That means communicating with them through their preferred channels and taking the necessary steps to know their wants and needs and so give them rewards that add actual value to their lives.

ThinkInk works with some loyalty companies that really get this.

For instance, Toronto-based Points, runs a virtual loyalty wallet where members can track, trade and redeem a variety of rewards currencies in one convenient location. Not only do consumers have more freedom to use their rewards how they want to, participating brands get to share some of their customer data for a clear picture of customer wants and needs that allows the brands to make relevant offers.

Another company, Kula Causes, built an online platform where brands can allow their loyal program members to convert unused points or miles into cash donations to the charitable organizations that mean most to them (there’s over 2.5 million to choose from!)

In this case, Kula’s partner brands, which include JetBlue and Kellogg’s, earn their loyalty members’ “brand love” – and longer-lasting business relationships – by acting as conduits for those customers’ charitable instincts.

We’re also lucky enough to work with Kobie Marketing, an award-winning loyalty marketing firm that has built many of the world’s most successful customer loyalty and CRM programs for brands including Verizon, AMC Theatres, TGI Fridays, BJs Restaurant & Brewhouse and Royal Bank of Canada. They were recently selected as a leader in customer loyalty services for the second time by Forrester Research, Inc. The findings were published as part of a comprehensive assessment of customer loyalty program service providers in the Forrester Wave™: Loyalty Program Service Providers, Q4 2013. The recognition showcases Kobie Marketing as a loyalty industry innovator while underscoring how companies such as Kobie help brands build programs that track, understand, reward and grow customer value and engagement. Go Kobie!!

Another client, the Fuel Rewards Network is a free rewards program that significantly cuts consumers fuel costs. Members of the FRN program are rewarded at the pump and through their regular purchases at local grocery stores, restaurants and online retailers with cents-per-gallon off savings that can then be redeemed at Shell gas stations around the country. In just over a year, the Fuel Rewards Network has saved Americans more than $240 million in fuel costs with members saving an average of .28¢ on every gallon. All of us at ThinkInk have enrolled in the program – and it’s open to everyone. Visit www.fuelrewards.com to learn more.

Last but not least is PointsHound. PointsHound, which launched in beta in October 2012, is a new type of online hotel booking site that caters to the coveted and valuable frequent traveler demographic by offering an unprecedented rate of airline, hotel and retail rewards for every hotel stay booked on the site, at more than 150,000 properties around the globe. Travelers can choose to earn points and miles with a growing roster of 12 loyalty rewards programs, including American Airlines AAdvantage, My Best Buy, Flying Blue and Virgin America Elevate when making their hotel reservations at PointsHound.com.

You could argue that customer loyalty is bought with discounts – and that’s true if we’re talking about a program that incentivizes exactly the same behaviors without being imaginative and thinking about the whole customer experience. And in an age of diminishing loyalty engagement, the overall experience is more important than ever to earn and keep a customer’s ‘brand love.’

So, while it’s actually some of both, I’m of the opinion that the best and most powerful loyalty is earned by brands that go the extra mile to better know their customers and give them the kind of true value that can drive those relationships for a lifetime.

If you belong to a loyalty program – and chances are you do – how does the brand earn your “love,” if at all? What experiences have enhanced or diminished your brand loyalty? Share your stories with us below.

Why the Lag in Airlines and Mobile Innovation? My thoughts on MobileMarketer.com

Mobile, mobile, mobile, mobile, mobile! Mobile seems to be mentioned in every other article and included in every marketing and customer engagement strategy – except when it comes to the airline industry. Mobile Marketer published my article yesterday about the economic potential that mobile technology has for airlines – even as the highly risk-averse industry seems to be fearful of incorporating these devices into every aspect of the passenger experience.

So, as the title of the column goes, why are airlines – which were truly cutting-edge during the Golden Age of commercial jets – so fearful of mobile innovation? Mostly, the current atmosphere of uncertainty in the commercial aviation industry is making airlines leery of implementing widespread tech changes if the ROI is hard to calculate.

But time – and consumers – won’t wait around: airlines should only look to how retailers and the hospitality industry are using mobile to drive engagement and revenues and take a lesson or ten from them. But that’s a topic for a future post…

In the meantime, you can read the entire article on Mobile Marketer here and I welcome your thoughts on airlines’ fear of mobile innovation in the comments section below.

Enhancing Attendee Engagement with the Mobile Channel

The following article by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of ThinkInk, originally appeared on Hotel Executive on 10/2/12. 

For traditional marketing and advertising promotions, the mobile channel is opening up a slew of new opportunities: everything from retail coupons to loyalty reward programs are being enhanced through mobile interactions. The immense convenience and “always connected” benefits of smartphones and other mobile devices (not to mention the intimate nature of these devices) make them a very appealing vehicle for consumer advertising, but what about the trade segments—specifically, what can the mobile channel do for trade shows and conventions? With mobile's vast capabilities and ever-growing adoption, the channel can increase the effectiveness of conventions by becoming an integral tool for all phases of the event: pre-convention, during, and post-convention.

There’s no denying the reach of the mobile channel: by early 2012, nearly 90 percent of Americans owned mobile phones, with roughly 50 percent of these being smartphones. And by summer 2012 two out of three US mobile purchases were for smartphones. Of course, in most business professions, the concentration of these numbers is far higher, making mobile one of the most effective tools to communicate with on-the-go professionals. Considering the professional playing field these days, who isn’t on-the-go?

Logically, these factors extend into the convention and trade show environment. Whether convention planners are looking to create an event-specific app or utilize optimized mobile websites to communicate with attendees, there are a number of mobile techniques that can be applied to ensure a successful event—and provide more opportunities to create value for convention goers. The following are a number of approaches for organizers to engage more attendees and optimize the convention experience through the mobile channel.

The Mobile Channel: Pre-Convention

Let’s face it: the majority of convention-goers aren't all that excited about attending an upcoming convention or trade show. While there’s nothing that can change this fact, planners can use the mobile channel to make preparations for these (rather unwilling) attendees much easier, thereby eliminating some of usual problems associated with RSVP “checkpoints” (hotel reservations, individual event reservations, etc.) prior to the convention.

• Notification – Before any major checkpoint is reached, convention planners can offer pre-registration (which, if applicable, could include downloading the convention’s app) that provides each attendee with a mobile notification that gives instant linkage to the specific RSVP site. Think of it as a direct landing page for each event, sent via text, mobile email, or app. For example, convention attendees can sign up at pre-registration to receive notification via a downloadable convention application. The result is that, prior to the RSVP deadline for each event, the attendee will receive a message:

Dear Mr. Smith, please find a link below that will either confirm or cancel your attendance of the workshop: “Using the Mobile Channel Effectively at Conventions.” Click on the link that represents your preference. We look forward to seeing you on July 23rd!

• Communication – Through mobile applications or devices that offer web communication (nearly 75 percent of business travellers’ own a smartphone), convention planners can provide a congregation/meeting forum for attendees. By providing “meet and greet” events through mobile devices, planners can eliminate and/or shorten the need and length of these events at the live convention. In addition, such forums can generate more excitement for the events, as long as each forum provides a moderator that gives detailed information about each event.

The Mobile Channel During the Convention

Convention planners grapple with the unexpected during convention execution, and it's not unusual that a professional wonders “why didn't someone just tell me?” when in attendance. With some smart moves, the mobile channel can be calibrated to enhance participation by offering immediate information, engagement, and connection with others on the floor, or even via social media. Issues that used to slip through the cracks can be addressed with smoother, simpler communication while on-site to ease immediate handling.

• Information – No longer do convention planners need to design, print, and distribute information packets and brochures. (Even virtual business cards can be exchanged wirelessly thanks to the latest generation apps and near field communication [NFC]-enabled phones.) Through mobile applications and optimized browsing, convention planners can offer maps and detailed event information such as exhibit locations, sponsor products, agenda items, and event location/times. In addition to its practicality, it helps provide an eco-friendly feel to events, and may even be used as an additional marketing tool.

• Engagement – Mobile offers instant interaction and instant results. Speakers and event managers can keep the audience engaged in events by asking questions, taking polls, and displaying results in real-time. Not only will the audience maintain a closer connection with presenting professionals, but the event organization in general can be streamlined for the benefit of all parties. Relevant questions received after speakers' presentations can be collected and answered to continue the interactive mindset.

• Connection – The mobile channel gives instant connection to event sponsors, planners, and fellow attendees. Implementation can also involve linking convention communications to Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and other popular social networking connections. With regular updates from attendees, event buzz can grow exponentially in real-time, and without increasing cost.

The Mobile Channel Post-Convention

Another essential convention component doesn't even happen on location. When the presentations are over, business cards collected, and bags are packed, it's all about the take-away benefits of a professional think-tank. On the attendees' side, the mobile channel facilitates cross-communication and the forging of partnerships, but it also enhances future conventions in the following ways.

• Feedback – Because it can be used to gather immediate feedback, mobile takes advantage of “fresh” data (information and opinions that are gathered while impressions are fresh on attendees’ minds) that will give planners an edge for the next “big event.” In the case of closely-scheduled or even back-to-back events, this information is considered vital. With so many organizations joining forces at a convention, communication between these separate entities can become streamlined.

• Maintaining Connections - Like all forms of electronic communications, mobile provides an open link between all convention participants long after the event’s conclusion. However, unlike other forms, mobile gives instant connectivity regardless of the participant’s location—convention sponsors, advertisers, planners, and attendees can communicate on-the-go. As all too often, these communications might be shuffled to a “to-do” list, never to been seen again because there was no immediate access to a computer. Mobile ensures that such ideas and thoughts are communicated whenever, wherever.

Challenges for Mobile Channel App Adoption

Convention planners can't move into the mobile channel without caveats. Participants can experience a streamlined event for networking and building their businesses, but only if provided with intuitive options for their needs, which can vary depending on industry. Building on app adoption in the first half of 2012 and 2011, current mobile channel incorporation can avoid the disappointments and pitfalls of earlier trial runs.

• Poor App Availability – Some early apps intended for conventions and trade shows this year were only available for iPhone users. Nielson Company's March 2011 mobile survey indicated that 31.1 percent of respondents wanted to purchase an Android as their next phone, while 30 percent wanted an iPhone—a close split that wouldn't be favored by an iPhone-only app offering. Apps also need to be planned for hybrids or mobile web to blanket the widest group of attendees as possible. Interestingly, in the time since that survey, Android adoption has eclipsed iPhones by a respectable margin: fully 68 percent of the smartphone-owning world owns one.

• Incomplete Offerings – There's no point in offering an app for participants if it doesn't have a draw. Instead of repackaged content or a series of maps, original content paired with event FAQs and directions is more likely to increase engagement. Some might argue that an inferior or “worthless” app could even damage the reputation of a convention or trade show, and the cost of development certainly wouldn't be worth the investment.

• Skewed Intention – Every quality app has its place in a convention if it is marketed properly and, if highly specialized, offered in conjunction with complementary apps. If offering an app to aid social networking, for example, it might be advantageous to additionally offer help-based, information-focused apps.

• Poor Design – Poor usability can hurt convention app use. Anything from hard-to-find information due to layout to untested designs can weaken the reputation of those offering “bonus features” to participants. Since many convention-goers ask a series of location-based questions upon arrival, for example, it would be advantageous to have that information positioned accordingly.

It’s not just the traditional consumer target that benefits from the “always connected” feature of the mobile channel; trade segments can also be successfully targeted in the convention atmosphere. Since the mobile channel is based on two-way communication, apps that allow feedback and commentary can improve more than just an industry event, but issues and product development discussions in the following year. Throughout all phases, convention planners and participants can take advantage of the convenience and effectiveness of the mobile channel.

Who knows? By making it easier to attend and participate (and even have fun) via the mobile channel, maybe everyone could even have a good enough time to enjoy it. Wouldn’t that be the ultimate type of engagement with convention attendees?

The following article by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of ThinkInk, originally appeared on Hotel Executive on 10/2/12. 

Engagement After The Fact: How Mobile Technology is Becoming a Hotel’s Best Post-Stay Emissary to Maintain the Guest Connection After Checkout

The following article by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of ThinkInk, originally appeared on Hotel Executive.

“A good rule to remember is that a guest is always a guest once they have stayed with you and the services you provide.”
– Scott Nadel, Chief Operating Officer, DMC Hotels/Dhillon Management.

It may not seem like a profound statement or idea, but it’s surprising how so many hotel brands and hoteliers fail to remember and act on this simple piece of advice. At its heart is the optimistic, glass half full notion, that in a perfect scenario, the customer experience never truly ends – not if you’re trying to engage guests and keep them loyal. It just evolves into different stages and levels of outreach and engagement. For once a guest leaves your hotel, business and leisure travelers alike often begin planning for their next trip, eager to lock in competitive prices, air travel benefits and potential room upgrades. For guests, barring something unexpected or calamitous, another getaway is always around the corner. And once they turn that proverbial corner, your hotel should be the first one they think of and consider. But it isn’t unless you are creating some form of continued engagement after they’ve checked out of your property.

The Start of Something Beautiful

In the last few years, mobile technology in the form of feature phones, smartphones and tablets have gone far to reinvent and re-imagine the continuing customer experience. While much has been written about mobile’s pre-stay and in-stay possibilities, including mobile booking, mobile checkout and a host of in-room and on-site hotel amenities, the post-stay experience has been largely ignored or thrown in as a last-paragraph addendum. But connecting with a guest after the bellhop has delivered bags and the bill paid is equally important and should be considered not the last step in a transaction, but the first step in a future stay. Think of it is as the start of a long, meaningful relationship – if done properly.

Restaurants and Mom’n’ Pop stores are often fond of hanging from their doors vintage red and white signs that read, “Please come again soon” or “Thank you for your business.” But for hotels looking to maximize mobile, turning the medium into the ultimate post-stay emissary, “please come again soon” shouldn’t be a siloed request – it should be an expectation that is carefully and non-intrusively cultivated. In other words, mobile can (and should) be a privacy-respecting approach that entices, not enrages and can include follow-up emails, Twitter and Facebook interaction, digital surveys, future deals and discounts, as well as providing the transparency for open guest dialogue, and the granting of reviews, whether they’re positive or negative.

There’s no getting around the fact that we live in a what-have-you-done-for-me lately culture. Failure to connect with a guest via mobile following their stay is like saying a brand doesn’t care. In these still-uncertain economic times, hoteliers would be wise to avoid that perception at all costs.

Hitting “Send” at the End: Why Mobile’s a Must

But before delving head first into the specifics as to what mobile can do for improving the post-stay experience, it’s important to recognize why mobile has become such a dominant player in the hospitality industry to begin with. For starters, mobile has in only a few short years, grown to become the dominant everywhere and anywhere technology. Nearly half (46%) of all US adults own a smartphone, says the most recent Pew findings, and tablets enjoyed a significant 2011 holiday season uptick too, nearly doubling to a 19% percent adoption rate. Combined, the adoption rate for smartphone owners who also own a tablet is expected to grow by 40% by 2016, according to Javelin Strategy & Research. Already consumers use their mobile devices to “window shop,” purchase goods, price compare, book flights, arrange travel plans and discuss these transactions with their friends via social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare and others. Mcommerce, while still only a fraction of overall commerce spending, has grown considerably and if current forecasts prove accurate, global transaction values could grow to $37 billion by 2016.

Airlines have been great examples of how to monetize the mobile experience and to weave its pocket-powered potential into their ancillary revenue profitability models – at least during pre-flight and in-flight. Air passengers not only expect but demand that their mobile devices keep them connected pre-flight and even pre-gate. In fact, a recent study by PC Housing, a temporary housing corporate provider, showed that business travelers are all-but addicted to their mobile devices. Most are between 25-50 years old, are workaholics and they carry three to four mobile devices – 95% own a smartphone and 64% own a tablet. Both percentages show a marked increase from 2011 with 44% and 33% adoptions rates respectively. And bringing it back to the hotel, fully 90% of these mostly male (60%) travelers expect WIFI connection at their place of lodging.

If travelers expect mobile to be a critical component to all aspects of their lives, there’s no reason why the same expectations wouldn’t apply at the end of their travel experience as they leave the hotel lobby.

Socializing the Digital Post-Stay Emissary

One of the most important post-stay tactics hoteliers should consider has garnered a good deal of press lately but it deserves constant restatement. Since the first lodgings opened their doors, guests have remained eager to discuss their travel and hotel experiences. Customers will discuss their bad experiences more than their good ones, and hotel guests are no different.

But that’s why mobile and social media can be such powerful teammates. Hotels that design their mobile websites and apps should consider letting guests have the freedom to write about their experience – no matter its positive or negative spin. Doing so instills a perceived sense of honesty, trust and transparency. And confronting negative reviews with follow-up emails or phone calls demonstrates earnestness in learning from past mistakes. Wyndham Hotel Group, for instance, is the latest hotel chain to make such an offer. In March 2012 Wyndham began displaying TripAdvisor ratings and customer reviews. The program began on the Wyndham Rewards loyalty program website, but the company plans to expand that offering. Whndham’s move was but the latest of a slew of hotels that have embraced this level of post-stay guest communication. Starwood initiated website-published customer reviews in October, along with Marriot and Four Seasons shortly thereafter. Meanwhile Hilton Worldwide said they would be adding customer reviews by the end of the year.

Together these steps reinforce what Kate Zabriskie, author of Customer Service Excellence: How to Deliver Value to Today’s Busy Customer has said about the customer experience: “The customer’s perception is your reality.” The bottom line is that with Facebook averaging around 500 million mobile users per month, and upward of 300 million photos were uploaded (many directly from high megapixel smartphone cameras) guests are already posting and sharing their travel experience. Hotels have an opportunity to get ahead of this communications bandwagon, not by controlling the online conversation per se, but encouraging its redirection back toward a hotel’s mobile website, app, or standard web landing page.

From the Soft Sell to the Harder Sell: Discounts, Deals and Follow-ups

If the possibility of continuing mobile dialogue and willingness to post even negative reviews is about “soft selling” a hotel brand – indirectly trumpeting it’s eagerness to please guests even after they’ve left, then the second post stay mobile benefit comes down to the “hard sell,” or more aggressive marketing tactics like discounts, package deals and the possibility of upgrades. Here, email and SMS can work just as effectively as social media. But if a hotel tries to attract repeat guests with rich media or augmented reality maps showcasing a hotels’ latest improvements or a promotional video, smartphones and better still, tablets (and laptops), are far more capable of delivering that content.

But if budgets are strained, simpler approaches may work best. Telluride Alpine Lodging, of Telluride Colorado, for instance, owner of several branded hotels, offers 10% discounts to: repeat guests, military veterans or AAA members. On the other side of the country, VillaDirect vacation homes, of Kissimmee, Florida, (specializing in rented vacation homes near Orland and Disney World) also offers returning guests discounts divided into three tiers: silver, gold and platinum with discount rates of 5% to 7.5%. A quick check on the company’s Facebook page reveals 48,289 “likes,” and as of this article’s writing, 412 people were talking about the company. In addition, the company’s Twitter page showed 155 followers. Increasingly, mobile will be the dominant way in which users access this information.


Much More Than a Digital Post Card

It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t too long ago that hotels corresponded with their guests via traditional post cards, follow up thank you notes, and the occasional six month phone call. While some hotels continue this tradition out of a sense of nostalgia, its purpose has lost much of its meaning – especially in view of the mobile and digital times we live in. The greatest difference between then and now: mobile allows the potential for a constant two-way dialogue through multiple communication channels (social media, email, SMS) all in a single device.

Too often mobile’s hotel progress has been consigned to a guest’s pre-trip planning and in-trip (and in-room) lodging amenities. But the reality is, when a customer checks out, their next check in could be only a matter of weeks or months away. Guests will always be guests as Nadel rightly points out, but whether or not they return, is what matters most. Sam Walton, the Founder of Wal-Mart, characterized a customers’ importance like this:

“There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else.”

Mobile is increasingly the ideal way to prevent that from happening, interacting with guests, offering deals and discounts, and providing a medium for them to discuss their travel experience anywhere and everywhere – and long after they’ve left your hotel.

The following article by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of ThinkInk, originally appeared on Hotel Executive.

Tablets will soon be top, driving engagement and consumer relevance

This article originally appeared on Mobile Commerce Daily by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of  ThinkInk on 06/12/12.

Make no mistake. The prediction business is a precarious game. According to the late astronomer-professor Carl Sagan, ancient Chinese court astrologers whose predictions proved wrong were executed. Less lethal are the quotes attributed to those who thought they knew what was coming but did not. I have been known to get a few wrong myself.

Whether it was Popular Mechanics’ no-longer-profound statement that “Computers in the future may weigh no more than one-and-a-half tons,” – an iPhone comes in at 4.9oz, an iPad under 1.5lb and my BlackBerry at 4.3oz – or BusinessWeek’s 1975 call that the paperless office would arrive before the close of the 20th century, both predictions, while bold for their time, could not entirely free themselves from the prism of their time.

In other words, envisioning a computer that weighed less than 3,000lb was impossible and the paperless office was as much inspired by Jetsons-era imaginings as it was based on the factual advance of the microchip.

Nevertheless, the guessing game continues.

Bet’s on
Marketers make predictions about mobile commerce’s 2016 dollar value, research firms postulate a laptop-less world, and the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes draw thousands of errant betters.

But if predictions are precarious, here is a safe observation I can make: when it comes to tablets and their ability to engage consumers and entice them with marketing messages, we have not even scratched the surface. Repeat, we have not even scratched the surface.

But since this article is about pushing the prediction envelope, here is a riskier call: in the tablet versus smartphone battle, tablets may ultimately win out as the go-to mobile Web interface and social media communicator.

There’s no denying that the tablet has had a rocky road, taking some 17 years to mature from the poorly received Newton Message Pad (remember that?) to having a category all its own.

But with the massive success of three iPad roll-outs over 29 months and competitors such as Samsung, Amazon and others locked in an aggressive game of catch-up broadening the consumer market, pushing their capabilities – retina display, Flash and NFC – tablets have become mainstream.

And like the modern smartphone whose arrival came shortly before it with BlackBerry in the late 1990s and the iPhone in 2007, the potential for marketers to reach and engage potential and existing consumers via tablets has never been greater – poised to have as great an impact on mobile marketing in the unfolding second decade of the 21st century as smartphones had in the closing years of the first decade of the new millennium.

On second thoughts, make that greater.

Tabulating the numbers
From what I can see, part of tablets’ success lays in the adoption rates – a fact, which began landing front-page ink and Google search hits back in January 2012.

One of my blog posts earlier in the year made note of the impressive statistic that in the span of a few weeks, the number of U.S. tablet owners nearly doubled to 19 percent from 10 percent. As it turns out, this was no Christmas gift fluke.

In April 2012 it was reported that global tablet sales tripled in year-over-year shipments. Some sub-groupings such as doctors saw adoption rates as high as 62 percent. Sound familiar?

Those were the same type of eye-popping data points surrounding iPhone purchases last October when just over a third of U.S. consumers owned one.

While it is important to remember that a tripling of anything is easy when you start with lower numbers, I do not think that is truly what is in play here.

Pardon the pun, but tablets have finally come out of their shells.

With smartphone adoption rates now at nearly half the United States population – and rising rapidly – consumers already expect high-speed mobile Web access. Tablets deliver a similar experience but deliver it better. Why?

Let us start with the larger screen that gives marketers greater “screen real estate.”

In other words, more space to engage and sell more stuff.

There are also indications that tablets, because of their larger size, ironically have greater market flexibility.

Apple might be today’s dominant tablet maker, but others such as Samsung continue to find their niche by designing so-called “hybrid devices” – smartphone and tablet combined.

The Galaxy Note, which launched in October 2011, is an excellent example.

While I am still married my BlackBerry because I can knock out articles such as this one with its miniscule 

keyboard in the back of a taxi or while I am between flights and so on.

As they say, old habits die hard but I am very close to committing device adultery. The device comes with a 5.3-inch screen, makes phone calls, stores music, runs Adobe Flash and comes with a stylus.

But the Galaxy Note is just the beginning.

Jablets, wablets, phablets?
So successful has Galaxy’s entry been into the “midsized” tablet market that a new term is rising up to define the industry segment. Enter the Phablet. And no, I did not just bite my tongue.

Phablet describes the combination of a phone and a tablet. These devices, being launched by HTC, LG and Huawei, are set to enter the market later this year and shipments are estimated to top 208 million units by 2015.

Their launch timetable may coincide with the rumored release of the “iPad mini” – another example of the specializing tablet landscape.

By contrast, smartphones are limited in their ability to adjust their size much further. Too small and the notion of hunting and pecking for touch-screen button and key strokes takes on a new, almost absurd notion. Any bigger and they bump into tablet turf.

“Tapping” into a whole new touch-screen audience
Referencing the term “midsized” tablet is reminiscent of the evolving family car.

Nearly all cars go from zero to 60 in similar-enough amounts of time, measured in second differences, offering similar performance, but nevertheless, the average size of the American car continues to grow, clipped only at brief interludes when high gas prices forced a downsize.

Arguably, cars got bigger because marketers could pack more amenities into a larger space and consumers soon expected the added room.

The technology under smartphones’ digital hood is no different than my car comparison and very similar to the technology behind the tablet.

iPhones have proven touch screen and retina display viable technology. But for marketers, a 3.5- to 4-inch screen space is no longer enough for customer engagement.

Tablets and phablets and whatever other names they will eventually be called bridge that gap while relying on the same anywhere and everywhere connectivity that 3G- and 4G-enabled smartphones presently deliver.

Already the National Retail Federation has found that nearly half (49 percent) of retailers say their tablet customers spend more per mobile purchase and account for 3.2 percent of Web purchases versus 1.5 percent for smartphone Web sales.

Think of tablets like digital shopping carts. Like cars, shopping carts have also expanded, along with aisle width, bricks-and-mortar square footage and the number of products per shelf.

Seen in this light, the digital shopping cart – the tablet – it is not surprising that half of retailers would report such findings.

Just imagine a 10th generation iPad that produces a three-dimensional holographic image of your favorite store. With the tap of a screen you can walk through an immersive environment of your choosing wherever you happen to be.

But before I leap into prediction mode, let us stick with the present.

If customer loyalty is all about engagement, then Apple’s 2048×1536 pixel retina display is critical. I have used it myself and agree with reviewers who describe its visuals as so rich and vivid that images appear “painted.”

While shoppers cannot gain a complete experiential marketing moment, touching and inspecting an item, nor has 3-D fully matured, but retina display, like HDTV, gets customers so very close to the actual bricks-and-mortar experience.

Combined with burgeoning Near Field Communication technology that promises a future of mobile wallets and location-based marketing via Bluetooth and WiFi – attracting shoppers when they are in-store or in proximity of a store – tablets are becoming a much larger picture – and screen – of the marketing landscape.

Future awaits – no matter how it is predicted to unfold
Back in September 1993, Peter H. Lewis, a writer for The New York Times, said this about the Newton:

“Apple promised too much and failed to deliver a useful device for everyday executive chores. 

[However,] the Message Pad practically hums with untapped potential, and six months…to a year from now it is likely to be a popular executive tool.”

Ha! Mr. Lewis’ prediction that the Newton tablet would be commonplace proved incorrect. But like the technology that began the tablet torrent 17 years ago, he was correct in his understanding of the device’s potential.

Almost a generation later and tablets are finally coming in to their own, un-tethered from PCs, laptops and, of course, smartphones.

For marketers and consumers, that is not a prediction – it is a fact.

Ultimately, predictions are not just made for the sake of it. Nor do they rely solely on existing technology. Predictions are a healthy amalgam of insight, foresight, facts and dreams. So was it foolish for BusinessWeek to envision the paperless office? No. It was quite daring.

The BusinessWeek article evaluated what was already possible in 1975 and extrapolated what was probable in the decades ahead.

In that leap-of-faith spirit, here is my final tablet truth: what tablets 2.0 – next-generation tablets – really need is for them to be as compact as today’s smartphones but be able to “unfold” to the size of a tablet.

Demonstrating what’s already possible, Atmel, a California-based semiconductor company, continues to promote its flexible touch screen technology, which uses thinner sensors than existing screens and has better battery life.

Such examples may not be the full realization of a Jetsons-style flying car that folds into a suitcase, but it is anyone’s guess – or prediction – of what is possible in the decades ahead.

As for me, I think it is an upgrade for which marketers should be on the lookout – before the still-hot traditional smartphone market folds. And I am not talking about in the flexible screen manner.

This article originally appeared on Mobile Commerce Daily by Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer of  ThinkInk on 06/12/12.